Economic Growth Towards The End Of The Year
Unfortunately this years first quarter of the year didn’t show much growth with it actually being one percent lower than what was predicted by New York-based banks however they do believe it’s going to bounce back towards the end of the year.
Experts say that this is completely normal and if we take a look at previous years the situation was exactly the same.
JPMorgan and Capital Economics LTD believe we are experiencing déjà vu, just like we did in previous years. Bruce Kesman, JPMorgan’s chief economists said:
“We have a forecast of a rebound in growth in the second quarter from this disappointment, with the U.S. leading the way.”
Senior global economist at Capital Economics in London, Andrew Kanningham, agrees with Kensman and he added that the surveys of business sentiment are assuring strength of the world economy. For example, Morgan Group Ltd.’s global purchasing index remained expansionary, slipping only 0.1 percent from February.
One of the reasons for not so good first quarter might be the lowest employment rate in US since December 2013, which influenced retail sales and capital goods orders to flop. Yet again this drop was not a reason to panic, since it wasn’t that drastic percentage wise.
Stephen Jen, founder of hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP said “the winter was too frigid and we’ll see hiring rate rising and wages ascending in months to come”. “The weak US data in recent weeks are to be ignored.” he added.
What will help the bigger, global, picture is that the euro also might not be weighing down so much. The Central European Bank is buying bonds to lift financial markets, in addition to its fiscal policies and easing bank lending.
There is no reason not to believe the predictions, numbers are showing big possibility for growth, the euro zone is getting better, the price of crude oil doesn’t seem to be rising any time soon, so it could be quite a good year ahead of us no matter what we have seen so far.